For the first time in 20 years, Travis County, housing most of Austin, has seen a shift in its long-standing trend of booming population growth. Recent figures from the U.S. Census Bureau highlighted the county experienced a negative migration between July 2022 and July 2023, with roughly 2,500 more people packing up and heading out than those coming in, as reported by CBS Austin.

Lila Valencia, the demographer for the city of Austin, said that such a trend hadn't been seen since 2002 when the dot-com bubble burst. Valencia also noted the tech industry's current decline, a key factor traditionally fueling the area's growth. The U.S. Census Bureau does not pinpoint specific reasons for the migration shift, but the lack of affordability appears to be a dominant driver. With home prices and rents soaring above the rest of the metro area, many seem to find neighboring counties more wallet-friendly, as per Austin Monitor.

"Travis County's loss, to some extent, is Williamson County's gain," Clare Losey, a housing economist for the Austin Board of Realtors, in a statement obtained by CBS Austin. It's a story of internal migration within the metropolitan area, as people search for more affordable living solutions. Meanwhile, Melanie Suber, a realtor with EXP Realty, pointed out that the high costs of homes in Austin have spurred interest in more economical options in surrounding areas. Melanie said, "People are thinking, why would I pay for $700-800,000 for a house when I'm just working from home and can live in a $300-400,000 house?"

Although the trend has shifted, Jordan Suber of EXP Realty remains optimistic, suggesting that it is still possible to secure a home below market value in Austin, as properties aren't moving as fast as they once did. Losey reinforces the idea that a lack of space for new homes poses the most significant challenge, requiring a move toward redevelopment. "Within Travis County, that's largely going to have to be in the form of redevelopment," Losey said, according to CBS Austin, suggesting prospective solutions like teardowns, rebuilds, or infill development.