Baltimore and Washington D.C. residents should brace themselves for a series of weather changes set to take effect over the next week. According to the National Weather Service, the region will see showers, thunderstorms, and a spike in temperatures before a cold front provides some momentary relief early next week. High pressure is then forecast to usher in cooler, drier days before summer reasserts itself midweek.
Starting this Saturday, morning showers and thunderstorms are expected as a warm front moves through the area, bringing with it high heat and humidity. "This net contribution will increase instability levels across the area, especially west of the Blue Ridge." the National Weather Service Baltimore reports, warning residents to be prepared for heat indices between 98 and 103 degrees. A second round of severe weather could follow in the evening, with the threat extending to areas along the I-95 corridor. There's the potential for thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and the risk of a brief, isolated tornado.
On Sunday, the combination of persistent warm advection and a strong cold front can lead to an even hotter day. "With high temperatures rising up into the mid 90s, heat indices could easily rise to 105 degrees and slightly above," the National Weather Service states, indicating a possible demand for Heat Advisories. Sunday’s cold front also means another bout of severe thunderstorms, raising concerns for damaging wind gusts which stand out as the most pressing threat. The cold front's passage on Sunday evening will signal a drop in temperatures and cessation of showers as it moves eastward, setting the scene for a more temperate Monday.
Monday’s arrival of a high-pressure system from the Upper Midwest is forecast to bring cooler air and northerly winds, resulting in daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and falling 10-12C at 850-mb. According to the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC, this will be "around 5 to 10 degrees below average for early July." The break from the heat, however, is predicted to be brief, as conditions warm up again by Wednesday.
Independence Day celebrations on July 4 may require a plan B for outdoor activities, as showers and thunderstorms might interrupt festivities. The National Weather Service has emphasized that "There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the area, with chances peaking in the afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating." It's clear that the weather for the coming week is going to be a ride of fluctuations from sweltering highs to more comfortable lows –and as always, a close eye on the forecast is advisable for residents and visitors to the Baltimore and D.C. regions.
For aviation, this means potentially challenging conditions with IFR ceilings in the morning and possible convective activity later in the evening. On the water, Small Craft Advisories are in effect due to gusting southeasterly winds, and special marine warnings may be needed if thunderstorms become severe. The National Weather Service also indicates that "Tidal anomalies rise today in southerly flow," which may affect coastal areas, particularly Havre de Grace and Annapolis, where minor flooding could occur.
