As the calm Pacific waters brush against Hawai'i's shores, the islands brace for a week characterized by brisk trades and limited rainfall—a marked shift ushered in by a strengthening high pressure ridge to the north. According to the National Weather Service, these breezier conditions are expected to persist throughout the week, bringing a stable atmosphere that promises mere brief showers over windward and mountain areas mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.
An upper-level trough that has been lingering roughly 350 miles north of Kauai is anticipated to lose its grip, retreating northward and dissolving within the next 24 hours while infrared satellite imagery reveals a procession of stable clouds carried in by the trades that are not likely to unleash any significant precipitation on the island chain in the near term boats need to take heed, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 AM HST Wednesday for the choppier waters around Maui and the Big Island due to fresh to strong trade winds. However, a slight weakening in the winds is possible come Wednesday before they pick up again later in the week.
In terms of aviation, the islands can expect moderate to breezy trade winds to carry on through the evening—with VFR conditions prevailing despite some possible fleeting MVFR cigs/vsbys in windward regions early this morning, particularly over the Big Island. Current satellite observations corroborate the forecast, indicating that flights can largely anticipate clear skies.
Mariners, too, should navigate with caution; the established high pressure system is predicted to stir fresh to robust trade winds that will warrant a Small Craft Advisory around Maui and the Big Island—surfers might find solace in the uptick of east shore surf, which is set to rise to seasonal norms as the week progresses due to the strengthening trades, those hoping for significant swells might be a tad disappointed as the north faces mellow summertime flatness and south swells remain moderate at best. On the flip side, the Big Island may grapple with minor coastal flooding between July 2 and July 6, reaching a peak around July 4, owing to both the lunar tides and water levels that are about 0.5 ft above normal, a Coastal Flood Statement is seemingly on the horizon as memories of the previous full moon's high-tide inroads at locales like Coconut Island still linger.
For daily updates on weather conditions that may affect your area, visit the National Weather Service website or follow their advisories for the most current information.
