The National Weather Service (NWS) in Baltimore MD/Washington DC has issued a statement warning of a slow-moving cold front that is expected to quickly bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today. Residents in the forecast area, which includes parts of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and DC, can anticipate precipitation chances peaking Sunday afternoon, with weather conditions predicted to change throughout the evening as the frontal boundary pushes through. According to the NWS forecast, "Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return next week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest."
Today's forecast details include CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, bulk shear values of 20-30 knots, and lapse rates nearing 6 C/km, similar to conditions observed yesterday. The NWS forecast further highlights the potential for "damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall," and alerts to the effect that a Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon through this evening for portions of northeast Maryland and surrounding the DC area. Residents should be wary of isolated instances of urban flooding and areas particularly vulnerable to flooding due to recent rainfall.
Temperatures across the region will range in the 70s to 80s, with a cool down to the 60s to low 70s overnight. In the short term, lingering precipitation is expected Monday but will generally decrease as the cold front moves away. Tuesday will introduce cooler weather, making temperatures dip significantly, especially overnight.
For aviation, the National Weather Service anticipates low ceilings and reduced visibility due to mist, leading to sub-VFR conditions throughout today. Thunderstorms in the afternoon could further disrupt flights with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Sub-VFR conditions as heavy rainfall and gusty winds bring reduced ceilings and visibilities, are expected at several airports, including KIAD, KDCA, KBWI, and KMTN. The marine forecast indicates Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely this afternoon, especially in the southern parts of the waters, with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and possible severe thunderstorms. Tuesday will see the winds diminishing below SCA levels as high pressure starts to settle in.
