Residents across Oahu and neighboring islands braced for a wet and windy start to the week as a weakening front moved southeast, carrying with it the possibility of heavy showers and thunderstorms. According to National Weather Service Honolulu's weather forecast, this front is just a prelude to a more potent winter low expected to hit the state midweek with stronger and potentially damaging winds, serious flooding, and severe thunderstorms.
The situation is a dynamic one, the front which was causing significant weather over Oahu is moving to Maui County and is expected to stall there for a period, elevating the risk of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Local weather officials had previously issued a Flood Watch for numerous areas, though this advisory was cancelled for Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu as the threat there diminished. For Maui County, however, the "Flood Watch has been extended through noon today," as per the National Weather Service Honolulu's reports. Breezy conditions following the front are also predicted to ease off by Tuesday, giving residents some respite after a turbulent start to the week.
By Tuesday and Tuesday night, forecasts suggest a calming with mostly dry conditions particularly over the smaller islands with "a cooler and drier airmass" moving in. Attention however is already shifting toward a rare and powerful winter low developing to the west, slated to bring its full force from Wednesday night into Thursday night. The National Weather Service emphasizes that "an unusually strong storm low will develop several hundred miles west-northwest of Kauai" which poses an uncommon strength for storms at this latitude.
Airmen and mariners are on alert as well, with advisories in place for mountain obscurations over several islands and moderate turbulence between certain flight levels, according to the National Weather Service. The marine forecast doesn't fare much better; a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters around Kauai until evening. The anticipated low pressure system moving in later in the week is forecast to bring "fresh to strong southerly to southwesterly winds, periods of heavy rain, and thunderstorms." Interestingly, there's also news for surfers—the North Pacific high is going to generate some notable swells, meaning a potential uptick in surf heights along the north facing shores Wednesday through Friday.
When it comes to fire concerns, the forecast somewhat tempers anxiety. Although there will be dry northerly winds around Kauai and Oahu on Monday, "no significant fire weather concerns" have been reported for this week, as noted by the National Weather Service. However, with the approach of the winter low, strong southerly winds paired with increased humidity levels ups the ante for heavy rains, which is indeed a double-edged sword in contexts of fire and flood safety.
