Extreme and erratic weather patterns are increasingly becoming the norm in Texas, with scientists attributing the cause to climate change. According to a report by The Texas Tribune, the first half of 2024 has seen a string of severe weather incidents ranging from record-breaking wildfires in the Panhandle, intense thunderstorms and flooding in Southeast Texas, to tornadoes and a tropical storm affecting various regions of the state.

In a statement obtained by The Texas Tribune, Avantika Gori, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University, said, "Rainfall is being concentrated in these really high-intensity storms." She explained that regions in Texas that normally experience wet conditions are now becoming even wetter, while dry areas are seeing amplified drought conditions. Furthermore, John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, has noticed an overall increase in rainfall across Texas, which he says is becoming more intense and erratic – though, the extreme rainfall in North and East Texas this year has been unusual.

Climate experts argue that higher temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions are to blame for increased evaporation from land and oceans, which leads to a higher flood risk. Feifei Pan, a hydrologist and professor at the University of North Texas at Denton, told The Texas Tribune, "Warmer air also can hold more water vapor, which can create heavier rain when it clashes with cold air to produce severe thunderstorms."

This year's weather forecasts predict a high probability for more tropical storms due to La Niña conditions which cool ocean surface temperatures and reduce wind speeds. These changes, coupled with warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, are expected to be major factors in the predicted 17 to 25 named storms, including at least four major hurricanes. Conversely, the state climatologist, Nielsen-Gammon, highlighted that higher temperatures also mean that droughts can develop more rapidly. Ongoing drought in West Texas, for instance, has pushed major Rio Grande reservoirs, Amistad and Falcon, to hold water levels drastically below their 30-year averages.

Addressing another layer of complexity, Robert Mace, executive director and chief water policy officer of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University in San Marcos, mentioned to The Texas Tribune that a 1944 treaty requires Mexico to deliver water to the U.S. from tributaries that feed into the Rio Grande. As it stands, these deliveries are lagging due to Mexico's own drought issues.