
As a cold front continues its journey across the Hawaiian Islands, residents and visitors can expect showers to persist throughout today. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Honolulu has detailed forecasts of increased shower activity, as well as a subsequent shift to cooler, drier conditions expected to set in tonight and carry through the weekend. According to the NWS report, "Shower activity will steadily increase over the eastern end of the state through the day, respectively, as the front continues down the island chain."
The same report suggests that while accumulated rainfall has been minimal so far, an isolated thunderstorm or two may still occur in parts of Maui County and the Big Island today. Transitioning into the weekend, weather conditions will turn drier and cooler, with a notable drop in dewpoints and northerly winds leading to potential borderline fire weather conditions. The NWS forewarns, "Although there is a low chance, red flag conditions can't be completely ruled out over the weekend as very dry air and moderate to breezy northerly winds fill in behind the front."
Aviation updates also reflect the passing of the cold front, with the potential for brief MVFR conditions as shower bands disperse. No AIRMETs are active at this time, but northerly winds are expected to strengthen throughout the day. The marine forecast indicates moderate to locally strong trade winds kicking off due to high pressure building behind the front, which will last through Monday night. The NWS cautions, "A large, long period west-northwest (300-320 degree) swell is filling in through the day, peaking this afternoon and evening," contributing to warning level surf conditions across many shores.
Warnings are already in place for heightened surf conditions, with a High Surf Warning effective until Saturday evening for several areas, including the west-facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and north Maui. The Big Island is also under a High Surf Warning through late tonight due to a westerly swell component affecting the region. As the weekend progresses, east shore surf will roughen as northeasterly winds strengthen, while a small south swell leads to increased surf on south-facing shores. The NWS adds, "This swell will produce warning level surf across most north and west-facing shores today."
The NWS also suggests keeping an eye on the extended forecast, as yet another cold front might push into the area by midweek, potentially bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of the state.