Sen. Amy Klobuchar is starting the 2026 governor’s race like an incumbent, not a newcomer, with a string of statewide polls giving her comfortable leads and leaving Minnesota Republicans hustling to catch up as the summer primary creeps closer. Her early surge comes on the heels of Gov. Tim Walz’s surprise decision not to seek another term, a move that blew up the expected script and reset the race overnight.
Polls: Klobuchar’s double-digit leads
In the latest numbers aggregated by The New York Times in partnership with Siena, Klobuchar sits comfortably ahead of the Republican field. An Emerson College Poll conducted Feb. 6–8 has her beating Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth 51% to 38% and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell 53% to 31%. Emerson College Polling and a separate KSTP/SurveyUSA test show nearly the same story, with KSTP pegging Klobuchar at 52% to 32% against Lindell and 49% to 34% over Demuth.
GOP caucuses and the path to endorsement
Republican precinct caucuses in early February offered the first on-the-ground readout of the race and highlighted just how unsettled the GOP bench really is. Local straw polls produced scattered winners, with Lisa Demuth notching early victories in several county-level preference ballots. In Olmsted County’s straw poll, Demuth pulled the largest share of caucus votes in that area, although those tallies are nonbinding and capture only the most committed party activists, not the broader electorate. As Post Bulletin pointed out, organizers see these caucus snapshots less as hard predictions and more as momentum-builders heading into the Republican endorsement fight.
Walz exit reshaped the map
Walz blew open the governor’s race in early January when he announced that he would not run for a third term, saying he could not give another campaign his full attention while the state wrestles with a sprawling investigation into alleged fraud in child-care and other programs. That decision effectively cleared a lane for Klobuchar to jump in and gave Democrats a high-profile, battle-tested statewide name to rally around. AP News detailed Walz’s announcement and how quickly it scrambled the state’s political calendar.
Calendar and what to watch
The key dates are already locked in. Minnesota’s state primary is set for Aug. 11, 2026, with the general election on Nov. 3, 2026. That gives both parties months to lock down endorsements, raise money and sharpen their pitch to voters. Watch for three pressure points: fundraising totals, the endorsement battles at party conventions and whether Klobuchar’s sky-high name recognition holds once Republicans settle on a single challenger. The Minnesota Secretary of State keeps the official election calendar and filing deadlines for candidates and voters. Minnesota Secretary of State
Bottom line: early surveys give Klobuchar a structural advantage against the current GOP lineup, but the campaign season is long and unpredictable. Between the endorsement fights, primary campaigning and national dynamics that tend to reshape down-ballot races, Minnesotans are likely to see this contest tighten and evolve between now and August.
