California's allure is still subpar, as new census data reveals the state's inmigration rate—the number of individuals relocating into a state in comparison to the total number of people who are moving within that state's boundaries—is at a national low. In 2022, only 11.1% of people moving in California came from other states, a statistic highlighting a possible decline of the once-enticing California dream, according to the Census Bureau. To put this into context, just a fraction of Californians chose to move in from elsewhere in the country.
However, it's vital to note that an impressive 4 million residents moved within California's own borders, which significantly skews the inmigration rate. In contrast, Oregon reported a robust inmigration rate of 21%, SFGATE reported. This suggests Californians might prefer changing neighborhoods over crossing state lines.
Across the U.S., the trend of state-to-state migration is ticking up, increasing from 7.9 million in 2021 to about 8.2 million in 2022. The Census Bureau identifies this as part of a decade-long increase in interstate moves amid an overall decrease in migration. The South and West, except California, have seen inmigration rates exceeding the national average of 19.9%.
Conversely, California has been grappling with potential outmigration consequences. There's a looming risk that the Bay Area might shift from a demographic ideal to a fiscal nightmare as population growth slowed in recent years. According to a Hoodline Bay Area reporting from July, stagnant population could threatened to erode the tax base, impacting jobs and political influence. Besides aging demographics and high housing costs, there's a threat of losing more congressional seats, Bloomberg reported.
Interestingly, the national narrative has been that Texas has somehow syphoned off California's population, but the data shows that the Lone Star State is actually suffering from similar below average inmigration rates that plague California. Alongside 9 other lagging states, California and Texas join New York and Louisiana, plus a large swathe of the Midwest, including Illinois.
In fact, the Census Bureau notes that the largest source of new arrivals in California actually came from Texas, with New York following closely behind.
