Once a rapidly growing state, California's population is now projected to remain the same through 2060, causing concerns over the state's economic might and potential loss of political influence, according to a Mercury News report. This new forecast contradicts previous predictions that estimated a continually rising population. Factors contributing to this stagnation include declining birth rates, an aging population, and an increasing number of people moving away from California due to high housing costs and other quality-of-life concerns.
As reported by Bloomberg, California already lost a House seat in 2021 due to population decline, and it could lose more in the future. Additionally, with fewer residents paying taxes, the state's tax base would be eroded and certain jobs (like those in education) might come under pressure. A loss of political influence could negatively impact the way Californians view their state, potentially causing a further exacerbation of the exodus.
For instance, factors such as decreasing birth rates during the pandemic will have compounding long-term effects on the population because fewer residents will be at the age to start having children in 20 years, as Andres Gallardo, a demographer with the state, told Mercury News. A stagnant population could result in a shrinking labor force that fails to replace retiring baby boomers, thus potentially diminishing California's economic power.
However, some experts remain optimistic. Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, believes the state’s tech and clean energy sectors, along with its other economic drivers, will continue attracting workers despite the population stagnation. If California succeeds in building more than 2.5 million market-rate and affordable homes by 2030, as planned, it might be able to accommodate more residents and prevent those living in expensive and overcrowded housing from leaving.
Ultimately, the outcome of this population stagnation will rest with California's leaders and how they address the housing affordability crisis, as Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, explained to Bloomberg. If the state is successful in helping its less fortunate citizens, California's future may not be so bleak after all, even in the face of a stagnant population.
