Pittsburgh residents might be able to enjoy a dry spell this afternoon despite the slots of showers and storms looming in the forecast, but will likely face more significant weather disruptions by Wednesday. According to an early morning update from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, the upstream convective system — essentially a mass of storm clouds — could still cause some changes, though most people in the area are expected to stay dry for the time being. High surface pressure, aiding warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, might fail to heat up as predicted due to cloud coverage from the aforementioned systems.
In their morning briefing, meteorologists pointed out, "MCS activity is likely to also notably increase cloud coverage/thickness greater than model guidance," which may limit the extent of the forecasted warmth for parts of eastern Ohio through northwest PA. The same brief also mentioned an evolving MCS over eastern Wisconsin, highlighting "forecast confidence is relatively low," with a turn more southward that might leave the local area unscathed. However, that precarious peace could end on Wednesday when a trough and associated cold front sweep through bringing higher likelihoods of showers and storms. The NWS warned that "Severe storms and flooding will be possible."
By Thursday, Pittsburghers can exhale as normal temperatures and dry weather reassert themselves. The forecast indicates that high pressure will fall into place, creating a pocket of calm until the weekend kicks temperatures up a notch. Come Saturday, "there's a good chance most locations will see apparent temperatures back in the 90s with Tds back up in the upper 60s / low 70s," per the NWS prediction. But, as heat accumulates, so does the risk of rain and storms, with another frontal system en route for the latter half of the weekend.
For those with plans to take to the skies, the NWS identified VFR conditions through much of the TAF period with "a few SW wind gusts up to 20 mph" stirring the pot today. As the next shortwave trough and surface front close in, there's an expectation for conditions to worsen. "Restrictions are expected Wednesday with ocnl showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region," says the National Weather Service forecast, with better aviation weather slated for Thursday and Friday under high pressure. Pilots and passengers should anticipate another bout of restrictions and shower and thunderstorm potential on Saturday, coming alongside another cold front.
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently issued for Pennsylvania, Ohio, or West Virginia, but residents and travelers alike are encouraged to keep abreast of updates. The full area forecast discussion is available on the National Weather Service's website.
