As Baltimore braces for a mix of heat, humidity, and possible thunderstorms, the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC offers a detailed forecast for the coming days. According to the NWS Area Forecast Discussion, residents can expect scattered convection and the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, particularly around western Maryland to the Fredericksburg VA area.
Although severe weather is not a guarantee, the main threats appear to be localized damaging wind gusts and a conditional risk for severe hail, should any supercells materialize. Today's temperatures will likely climb into the 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows settling in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Patchy fog may develop in areas west of I-95, or areas that experience rain throughout the day.
Heading into the midweek, a surge in heat and humidity will mark the peak of a late-season heat episode on Wednesday. Heat indices exceeding 100-105 for much of the lower elevations are anticipated, so those residing or working in the Baltimore region should be prepared for oppressive conditions. Despite these high temperatures, the chance for thunderstorms continues to threaten the area, with increased potential for a few clusters of strong to severe storms, especially on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
In terms of aviation, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening, with scattered thunderstorms peaking between 19Z-23Z for the metro areas, earlier at MRB, and slightly later at CHO. Fog may again be a concern overnight, particularly for terminals west of I-95 or in locales that receive more substantial rainfall. For mariners, expect light winds through mid-week with a low risk for thunderstorms and generally sub-SCA conditions. Tidal anomalies may be slightly elevated, but flooding is not projected given the light and variable flow predicted across the waters.
