Las Vegas is gearing up for another heatwave as temperatures are expected to soar above normal through the coming week. According to the National Weather Service Las Vegas NV, the Mojave Desert will experience drier and more stable conditions, starting today, with limited thunderstorm activity. The forecast discussion emphasizes that storm coverage will be generally weak as the area enters a period of intense heat, especially by tomorrow when an Excessive Heat Warning is to take effect from 10 am and last into Tuesday evening.
The high temperatures are projected to rise even further as a high-pressure system strengthens over the Four Corners. Residents in the desert valleys are advised to prepare for extreme heat risk starting tomorrow afternoon. However, some moisture may still linger in the morning hours, potentially allowing for shallow convection along higher terrains. Officials have to be ready to respond to south or southeast outflow winds from isolated thunderstorms that could arise south of the valley along the McCullough Range, moving northeast through the east valley.
Looking into next week, Monday is expected to be sweltering, with highs around 5 to 8 degrees above normal. "Moisture profile will thin further on Sunday, with precipitation chances becoming confined to eastern Mohave County," states the NWS report. Moreover, the anticipation for Monday's weather remains fairly stable; however, the onset of an easterly wave later in the week brings uncertainty to the forecast.
Forecast models differ in their predictions, with discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions regarding the timing and strength of easterly waves that could potentially increase moisture levels in the region. This difference has implications for mid- to-late week precipitation forecasts: "Unsurprisingly, the GFS ensemble mean solution tends to favor moisture returning to the region sooner and stronger than its ECMWF counterpart," the NWS report clarifies. As a result, aviation forecasts suggest that while most winds will remain under 10 kts, there could be outflow from storms affecting flights, particularly during the afternoon and evening in the southern Sierra and central Nevada.
Finally, with the likelihood of reduced visibility from gusty surface winds and locally heavy rainfall where storms are stronger, spotters in the region have been encouraged to report any significant weather events or impacts. As the week progresses, both residents and travelers should closely monitor weather updates and be mindful of the fluctuating conditions in the forecast area.
