As Orlando braces for scattered showers and thunderstorms later today, the forecast in Melbourne is cautioning residents and visitors in Central Florida to be prepared. According to a weather advisory issued this morning by the National Weather Service, storms are expected to develop primarily after 20-21Z, which translates to later in the afternoon for those not fluent in weather speak. Visitors and people with flight plans should pay close attention—the advisory mentions that the convection should generally wind down after dark, around 02-03Z.
Looking at the rest of the week and into early next week, the National Weather Service tells us that shower and storm chances will drop below average, which might relieve those weary of the frequent Florida downpours. Yet, the forecast isn't all about blue skies ahead. Minor coastal flooding remains possible, especially during late morning high tides Friday through the weekend. Watch out for flooded streets and yards if you're living or playing along the Intracoastal areas. As for the tropics, there's a sense that something might be brewing. The region has a 40% chance for tropical development in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico. Details remain fuzzy, but anyone who's weathered a Florida hurricane season knows to keep one eye on the horizon—or at least on the weather app updates.
Amidst this transient calm, the broader weather patterns triggering these showers and minor coastal floods track back to a mid-level trough over Florida and a ridging pattern above Texas. With lower-than-normal total moisture numbers being ushered into Central Florida, temperatures are predicted to stay hitched close to seasonal averages for September in the days ahead. This might seem like a meteorological snooze fest, but in the context of climate patterns, it's pertinent to understanding the rhythm and temperament of local weather.
Marine conditions reported for today into Monday point to mostly manageable 2-4 FT seas, but winds will pick up, and a northeast swell is expected to roll in. This could make the seas slightly cantankerous come Sunday into Monday, switching gears to 3-5 FT seas and making conditions less hospitable for those looking to soak up some sun or cast a line offshore safely. As always, verifying the latest marine conditions before making nautical plans is a good idea.
Daytime highs for Orlando are tipped to be in the bright glow of the lower 90s, with overnight cooldowns sliding into the low to mid-70s range. And while storm possibilities float upwards to 70% down in the Treasure Coast, Orlando itself has a coin-flip's chance at precipitation today. So, while you may not need to fasten down the hatches just yet, a casual glance at that hurricane kit in the closet wouldn't be out of order.
