Residents in and around Pittsburgh should brace for a weather week with potentially severe storms today and continued rain chances through the week. According to the National Weather Service, a surface warm front heading northward and a surface low across the midwest are the catalysts for today's expected showers and storms, with areas south and west of Pittsburgh at a marginal risk for severe weather. This includes strong winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes. However, there is some uncertainty due to potential cloud cover and atmospheric capping that could limit storm development.
Today's temperatures will vary depending on location, with the upper 70s to lower 80s in the warm sector and upper 60s to lower 70s north of the warm sector. These conditions are influenced by a slowly moving warm front and sharpening wind shear that may push through the cap to initiate strong storms, especially in Ohio, SW Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia, where the most instability is expected, with values approaching 50 knots near the front.
Moving into the evening and through Thursday, the outlook is wetter, with showers likely to persist, as a closed low across the central United States interacts with shortwaves within a general southwest flow aloft. Forecasts suggest lighter precipitation totals, but variance in ensemble models highlights some uncertainty around the depth and timing of potential troughings north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Cloudy conditions are expected to minimize visibility restrictions for aviators, with sporadic rain and thunderstorms potentially causing occasional IFR visibility issues and fluctuating ceilings, particularly at night or after rainfall. A southeast wind will prevail, and storms during the day could bring damaging winds, hail, and the chance of isolated tornadoes. According to the NWS in Pittsburgh, PA, uncertainty makes determining the stability and potential for intense storm formation difficult.
