The new year in Honolulu brings changing weather patterns, with a high-pressure system building north of the Hawaiian Islands. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), this system is expected to maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds through Thursday, helping to clear the smoke from New Year's fireworks. As the high moves east by Thursday night, lighter winds and a sea breeze pattern are forecast, with limited showers.
Despite a passing front northwest of Kauai having minimal impact and the dissipation of a cold front initially directed at Hawaii, the NWS warns that VOG is expected to return by the weekend. As breezes weaken and shift to the southeast, they are likely to carry volcanic smog from Kilauea across the state, posing a particular risk to individuals with respiratory conditions. "If Kilauea continues erupting at a similar intensity, the southeasterly winds will transport VOG or sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the volcano northward," the NWS states. This condition highlights the variable nature of the island's atmosphere, influenced by both wind patterns and volcanic activity beneath the surface.
The NWS outlook further predicts that by mid-next week, another weak cold front may bring showers, particularly to southern mountain slopes. With light southeasterlies from Friday, it seems the high pressure ridge will enforce a stable environment, keeping shower activity sparse. Boaters should note the Small Craft Advisory in effect until early Thursday morning for certain waters due to fresh to locally strong trade winds.
For beachgoers and marine interests, an advisory was signaled by the NWS, with a High Surf Advisory now extended to include several islands' north and west shores until Thursday evening. A rapid surge in a northwestern swell this weekend is also projected to bring high surf conditions. "A second, even larger, northwest swell event is expected to build into warning level surf heights over the weekend," the NWS states, highlighting the Pacific's unrelenting pulse.
Meanwhile, relative humidities should remain above critical levels, minimizing the risk of severe fire weather conditions over the next seven days. While visibility at some TAF sites was briefly obscured by NYE fireworks smoke, this is expected to clear with the return of stronger trade winds. Individuals with breathing difficulties should remain cautious, as shifting winds may bring the return of VOG to the islands.
