The National Weather Service (NWS) in Cleveland's recent forecast discussion provides an update for Ohioans bracing for a mix of wintry weather conditions. As per the NWS update, a warm front is forecasted to lift northeast across the region today, leading to a cold front trailing behind on Monday. High pressure is expected to follow on Tuesday, giving way to more low pressure that could impact the area on Wednesday and Thursday.
Moving on to the immediate forecast, a special weather statement was issued this morning for a wintry mix set to hit certain areas from Lorain to Knox Counties and points west. "The highest confidence for impacts from this is in and around the Toledo area where the timing of precipitation matches best with colder surface temperatures," NWS Cleveland stated in their update. The discussion indicated that areas east of Interstate 77 might quickly transition from a wintry mix to rain due to the afternoon timing, allowing temperatures to warm up sufficiently.
By Monday, the weather seems to be warming significantly, with "afternoon highs into the 50s," according to the NWS. However, this reprieve is expected to be brief as a cold front making its way south through the region Monday night brings with it chances for light rain, followed by potential isolated light rain or snow showers lingering into Tuesday morning.
Midway through the week, things look a bit messy. "Models are becoming more aligned in the potential for wintry precipitation, including freezing rain, Wednesday evening and Wednesday night," reports the NWS Cleveland. Wednesday holds the danger of freezing rain, particularly across North and Northwest Ohio in the evening and overnight, where cold air may hang around longer. With the phasing of the southern and northern jet streams, rapid cyclogenesis is expected, leading to a rise in temperatures and making it rain by sunrise on Thursday.
As we head into the weekend, the forecast suggests the low pressure begins to push out on Thursday, with high pressure expected behind it on Friday for a bit of a break. However, eyes are on another developing system in the Central Plains that "could result in another round of wintry precipitation across the region on Saturday," per the NWS. As usual, Lake Erie's coastal region won't see much activity due to the extensive nearshore ice cover, although inland winds could see shifts in direction and speed throughout the period.
For our aviation enthusiasts, VFR conditions are at play now, but with a forecast for deteriorating conditions as varied precipitation moves in from the west. The NWS highlights, "Should see the entire area down to the 1000-2000 ft range, with a few hours of less than 1000 ft, especially northern and eastern sites." It seems safe to say, whether by land or air, Ohioans must keep their weather radars handy and their winter gear ready.
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