Baltimore residents should brace for a blend of weather conditions over the next few days. The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC forecasts a weak cold front to push through today, introducing spotty showers in some parts of the region and gusty winds. Their Area Forecast Discussion states, "Spotty shower chances return to northern and western portions of the area today as a weak cold front pushes through."
While the city may escape much precipitation, areas along the PA/MD line west of US-15 and the Allegheny Front may see some activity. High pressure is expected to bring clearer skies tonight into Sunday before a second, stronger cold front sweeps in late Sunday night, setting the stage for widespread rain into Monday. The Service has also issued a Special Weather Statement for the risk of elevated fire danger in certain areas. The combination of recent dry conditions and 10-hour fuel moisture between 8 and 13 percent, relative humidity falling to 20 to 35 percent, and westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will result in an elevated threat for the rapid spread of fires between about 11 AM and 8 PM today.
Aviation interests should note that a weak cold front may cause a period of MVFR ceilings at the terminals this morning into the afternoon, with potential light showers mainly north and west of KMRB and KHGR. For boaters on the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac, Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecasted from 8 AM today through early Sunday due to the front. Mariners should be wary as "Any of these showers have the potential to bring down gale force winds between 11am this morning and 5pm this afternoon," the National Weather Service warns.
The rest of the week looks to keep Baltimore on its toes weather-wise. With ridging across the western U.S. and downstream troughing, a high amplitude pattern indicates that the city will fall under a trough aloft, perpetuating unsettled conditions. Widespread showers will gradually spread eastward from the mountains Sunday night into Monday, and another front on Wednesday should clear the way for increasing sunshine. Temperatures may climb into the 70s by next Saturday, but a sizeable increase in temperature spread hints at some remaining uncertainty in the forecasts.
