The skies over Baltimore are preparing for a dance of thunderstorms and winds as the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC issues warnings across the region for March 5th. The forecast points toward a strong low-pressure system and an associated cold front that's bringing not just some raindrops and light shows. Still, also the potential for severe weather events, with showers and thunderstorms expected to push through the area from the Appalachians between 15Z-22Z, and strong damaging winds are a primary concern due to the strength of low-level winds, commonly potent at 53 kt and 70kt at 925/850 mb respectively, according to the National Weather Service forecast.
Residents in Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton counties are bracing for a chilly conversion from rain to snow showers, with several inches of snow accumulation anticipated and a Winter Weather Advisory effective from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday. The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC warns model soundings from the HRRR and NAM show a stable near-surface layer with only 30-35 kt able to mix down. Still, the strength of the low-level winds is very concerning, a statement that grabs the attention of anyone wary of what the weather holds in store.
Post-storm conditions aren't looking to give much relief, with Thursday promising much colder temperatures and a blustery aftermath as residents will likely be caught in Wind Advisory conditions across the northern half of the forecast area. While the winds may begin to calm by Friday, as surface ridging rolls in from the west, another round of mountain snow is not out of the question—extending an icy invitation that refuses to take "spring" for an answer.
Looking ahead into the weekend and Tuesday, a seesaw of weather patterns means that the Baltimore region is playing host to the uncertain waltz of a backdoor front, with cold air settling in on Sunday. Yet, above-normal temperatures teased for the week to come. As the National Weather Service notes "another round of precipitation will be possible on Sunday with the main threat area being along and south of I-64, GFS has a more pronounced upper level trough dropping through the southern parts of our region while the Euro has a more diffuse upper level pattern that brings little to no precip to the region."
For those taking to the skies or sailing the waters of Baltimore, heed the warnings: a line of showers is forecasted to cross over, starting at CHO around 16Z, introducing gusty weather conditions for aviators, while mariners should prepare for Gale conditions. Minor coastal flooding in some regions of Anne Arundel County is also flagged as a possibility, reminding us that sometimes, nature's fury comes with rising water at our doorsteps. With this week's weather, Baltimore is set for a turbulent ride, promising more than just a bit of March madness.
