The Hawaiian Islands are set to endure a wet start to the week with the National Weather Service in Honolulu indicating that heavy showers and a few rumbles of thunder could stick around until tomorrow. According to their forecast, the unsettled weather is due to an upper-level disturbance hovering to the west. Most downpours are expected to hit windward and mauka areas, but don't be surprised if you get caught in a shower inland or on the leeward side come afternoon, courtesy of the day's sea breezes.
The short-term outlook has meteorologists in agreement; the muggy and shaky conditions are here to stay a bit longer thanks to a persistent low-pressure system stationed west of Hawaii. "Similar to Saturday, periods of locally heavy rainfall are expected, particularly over the western end of the state, where instability is greatest," the NWS noted. With lighter east-southeast winds in the mix, afternoon showers could invade typically drier areas as well. And while thunderstorms are on the menu, they'll likely be isolated incidents, says the NWS.
By the latter half of the week, it looks like locals can expect a return to drier times, with moderate to breezy easterly trade winds making a comeback as high pressure builds to the north. The upper low is also expected to lose some steam, transforming into a trough and migrating eastward across the islands from Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast models show that this will mean more typical showers for those living windward and mauka, further stabilized as the upper-level disturbance exits stage east.
Aviators might find themselves navigating through some patchy to moderate southeast winds over the weekend, with potential visual flight rule conditions if caught under any heavy showers. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect due to mountain obscuration concerns for large swathes of the Hawaiian archipelago. Meanwhile, nautical types can expect to sail in choppy conditions up until early next week when winds should begin to pick up in intensity, offering a slight bump in east shore surf.
Moving into the weekend, there's a split in confidence over which way the winds will turn. Some forecasts suggest those trade winds might take it easy if a cold front swoops in, while other solutions expect the trade winds to keep things steady. A mix of Northwest swells should keep the surfers happy, and there's a bit of hope for south shore wave riders too, with tiny bumps forecasted to arrive early next week. As for warnings and advisories, currently, the Big Island Summits are under a High Wind Warning until noon today.
