The National Weather Service, Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC, has updated the local weather conditions, indicating a period of unsettled weather for Baltimore and surrounding regions. According to the latest Area Forecast Discussion, high pressure to the north will shift, making way for a strong low-pressure system to affect the area from Wednesday into Thursday.
The forecast, issued at 3:22 AM EDT, suggests dry conditions throughout much of today with increasing cloud cover expected from west to east. However, by this evening, shower activity may begin, particularly west of the Blue Ridge, spreading eastward overnight. Despite these changes, temperatures are predicted to hit the upper 60s to mid-70s, slightly cooler in the mountains, with the clouds and rainfall maintaining nighttime temperatures in the 50s.
Precipitation is projected to intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential for significant rainfall in some areas. Most ensemble guidance has the area in a broad half to one and a half inches of rain, though the far NW portions of the area are near 2-3. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has indicated a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in the Northwestern parts of the region, with the potential for flooding. Moreover, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) flagged the area under a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, contingent upon whether breaks in cloud cover may permit enough instability to develop.
Adverse conditions may impact airport operations towards the end of the week. "By daybreak Wednesday, widespread IFR conditions are expected," reveals the discussion. IFR conditions are likely to persist due to a continuous easterly wind gusting around 15 to 20 knots. As for waterborne transit, Small Craft Advisories are in effect until mid-morning, with the potential for another round to follow tonight into Wednesday, according to National Weather Service updates.
Coastal flooding is also a concern. Starting tonight and continuing through Thursday morning, Annapolis and other sensitive areas may experience Minor tidal flooding, with a chance of Moderate flooding highlighted by the Steven's ensembles. These conditions are expected to subside by Thursday as winds shift northwesterly. As residents brace for a wet and cooler period, temperatures are anticipated to remain below average leading up to the Memorial Day weekend.
