As the high pressure system to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands starts to lose its grip, residents and visitors can expect the persistent breezy trade winds to ease off somewhat into next week. According to the latest update from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, while the successful trade winds will continue through Sunday, they're expected to taper off starting Monday, offering a slight respite from the blustery conditions.
Despite this, the islands won't be drying out completely just yet. An upper-level low, which continues to hover approximately 250 miles north of Maui, has been enhancing showers as it carries moisture over the island chain. However, as this system slowly shifts northeastward, a "more stable airmass is expected to move over the islands," leading to reduced shower activity and an increase in sunshine, especially over the holiday weekend, the NWS noted.
On the aviation front, no AIRMETs are currently in effect, but there may be a need for AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration if the moisture band coming in with the trade winds remains thick enough. The potential for increased showers, primarily impacting the windward areas, is linked to a moisture band upstream that's been gradually thinning but could still affect weather patterns as it interacts with Hawaii's mountainous terrain.
The marine outlook is also subject to change, with the high-pressure system’s weakening causing a potential need to reissue a previously cancelled Small Craft Advisory later this afternoon. The moderating winds may be "just near the criteria tonight through early Sunday," a point emphasized by the NWS. Meanwhile, a small long period south-southwest swell is expected to lift surf conditions today, before winding down in the coming week with another similarly-sized swell anticipated to hit midweek.
Beachgoers should also be aware of the higher than normal tides predicted through Wednesday, possibly leading to some coastal flooding during peak high tides in the early afternoon hours. Despite this, the NWS anticipates the impact to be minimal due to the timing between the elevated tides and incoming south swells. To stay informed on the latest weather advisories, the NWS urges the public to monitor their official forecasts and updates to ensure safety and preparedness during this holiday weekend.
