Baltimore and the greater Mid-Atlantic region are gearing up for a sweltering end to the week, with the National Weather Service issuing heat advisories and anticipating thunderstorms. According to the National Weather Service, residents can expect "summerlike conditions" to return as high pressure shifts east, coupled with a weak front that will stall over the area, bringing hot and humid conditions along with daily chances for thunderstorms through early next week.
The forecast discussion outlines that today through tonight, the heat dome will start to build into our region, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by this afternoon. The heat index values could peak at mid to possibly upper 90s. Toward the weekend, even higher temperatures are expected. For Friday, high temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, and low to mid 90s on Saturday. The same front responsible for the heat, according to the National Weather Service, is expected to deliver scattered afternoon thunderstorms in the Alleghenies and along the MD/PA border. Still, coverage of these storms may be low due to the present atmospheric conditions.
In terms of advisories, the National Weather Service has made it clear that Heat Advisories have been issued for most of the area from Friday afternoon to evening, where confidence is high in meeting the criteria. On Friday, peak heat indices are expected to range from 100 to 110 degrees, posing significant risks for those exposed to the heat. Public response measures in areas of central Virginia, from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg, are likely to involve issuing additional advisories on Saturday when heat indices could reach 95-105°F, just below the established criteria for advisories.
For aviators, VFR conditions are forecast to persist across the area today through Friday in steady southerly winds. However, from Saturday afternoon/evening, a better chance of thunderstorm impacts is expected at all terminals. Mariners on Chesapeake Bay should be cautious as well, as gusty winds and lightning strikes associated with potential thunderstorms pose threats over the weekend. Come Sunday, another weather pattern shift increases shower and thunderstorm chances to 30 to 50 percent, primarily during afternoon to evening hours, affecting both flight and marine conditions.
Coastal areas are also on alert, with the National Weather Service warning of minor coastal flooding at Annapolis and other sensitive locations. Changes in water levels due to strengthening southerly winds through Friday will necessitate close monitoring for flooding, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be forthcoming, particularly for the early morning high tide. The weather service advises that the front's eventual stall and offshore wind shift over the weekend should help to lower water levels in the bay.
