Residents in the Hawaiian Islands can expect a shift in weather patterns this week, as a subtropical ridge starts to weaken, giving way to lighter trade winds that are expected to persist through tomorrow. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), winds will begin to veer from east to southeast starting Thursday, leading to an increased presence of onshore sea breezes throughout the afternoon hours on each island.
An old East Pacific cold front’s remnants are drifting toward the islands, set to enhance showers across the state from Wednesday morning into Thursday. While this may not bring a deluge, the NWS notes an “unstable band of clouds” that could produce more than the usual drizzles, especially along windward and mountain areas across the islands. This trend is expected to continue into the weekend, as weakened trade winds will allow sea breezes to pick up—and where there’s heat and rising air, there’s the potential for afternoon showers. These typically favor mountain and interior sections of each island, though recent weather models point to possible converging winds that could bring additional shower bands, particularly over Oahu and Kauai.
On the aviation front, the moderate trade winds holding firm will keep clouds and precipitation concentrated mainly on windward and mountainous regions. While most areas are expected to maintain visual flight rules (VFR) standards, the NWS cautions that localized marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions could occur within passing showers, especially as the frontal remnants pass through.
Sea conditions are also forecast to change over the coming days, with the NWS predicting that the current moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds holding steady through tomorrow will gradually diminish as the week progresses into early next week. For swimmers and surfers, that means an interesting mix of conditions: a small, medium-period north swell fades today, but waves won’t be gone for long, as a series of small north and northwest swells are on the horizon, set to keep things lively alongside surf from a moderate, medium-period northwest swell expected by the weekend.
Concerning fire weather conditions, the NWS indicates that wind speeds are likely to stay below critical thresholds over the next week, with temperature inversion heights near the Big Island and Maui ranging from 5,000 to 6,000 feet today, thus helping to keep the fire risk at bay.
No advisories, watches, or warnings are currently in effect, as mentioned by the NWS, offering a reprieve for residents and visitors who can enjoy the islands while keeping an eye on the skies for those predictable, yet always surprising, Hawaiian showers.
