Trade winds are expected to maintain their pace in Honolulu, with moderate to locally breezy conditions prevailing into next week. The National Weather Service in Honolulu reports a persistent subtropical ridge over the Central Pacific is the primary driver of our weather at the moment, keeping those tradewind patterns at the forefront of the forecast. Some increase in clouds and showers is anticipated as an easterly wave is set to sweep through the islands from Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially deepening moisture levels and heightening chances for rain, especially for the eastern islands.
While humidity levels are staying low, touching upon fire weather concerns, there looks to be a shift around midweek, with humidity and showers on the upturn, which could mitigate some fire risks. And although no critical fire weather thresholds are expected to be reached, it's a developing situation that warrants attention. The NWS notes that subsidence inversion heights are currently between 5,500 and 6,500 feet in the vicinity of the Big Island and Maui, a factor usually indicative of the potential for fire weather conditions.
In aviation news, VFR conditions are largely anticipated aside from within showers. Trade winds remain firmly under high pressure to the northeast, which will support the usual passing showers that favor the windward and mountain areas overnight and into the early morning. No AIRMETs have been issued at this time. Ongoing forecasts indicate that tradewinds could pick up again towards the end of the week, creating conditions that pilots will need to stay informed about.
Seafarers should note that a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) persists until Sunday evening for a number of water regions, including Maalaea Bay and the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, among others. Moderate trades are to be expected through midweek, with projections showing a potential resurgence to SCA levels as Thursday and Friday roll in, so we are looking at a bit of a lull before the winds pick up again. Meanwhile, surf conditions are on the wane for north-facing shores with a notable decline today, but a possible uptick later in the week could give surfers something to look forward to, especially with a medium-period north swell on the horizon.
