It's another day in Pittsburgh, where the sun keeps flexing its muscles with above-average temps forecasted to continue making their presence felt. If you've been enjoying the heat, this Sunday will serve as another reminder that climate patterns aren't what they used to be. The National Weather Service of Pittsburgh points out that, while a short wave passing through could lead to some scattered cloud coverage, most will likely see conditions dry throughout the day with thermometers reading 5 to 10 degrees above the norm.
But hold on to your hats, or better yet, umbrellas, as increased rain chances are forecast for tonight with the arrival of a warm front, particularly over eastern Ohio counties. Thunderstorms also could be on the menu, as well as something to spice things up with some wind threats, albeit on the lower end. HREF joint probabilities for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 25 knots of 0-6km bulk shear reach around 25-30% which could point toward a low-end wind threat, according to the NWS. Storm Prediction Center has maintained a "Marginal Risk" for damaging wind gusts, but the party could be dampened as the severe weather threat seems lower if storms roll in post-sunset.
Advancing into the short-term stretch, from this evening through Monday, expect the potential showers to stick around. The overnight story tells of temperatures cozying up in the 60s, and Monday may see the stormy scene extend eastwards, almost reaching the ridges. As the week unfolds, the weather narrative will bring nearly average temperatures later in the week, all the while showers and thunderstorms continue to hover in the backdrop through midweek, thanks to an upper trough leaning in from the north, as reported by the NWS.
Aviation-wise, if you're planning to fly out or into western PA or northern WV today, it's generally smooth skies ahead with a very low probability of isolated showers impacting the flight paths between KMGW and KPIT. The upper shortwave stirring things to the west could trigger a line of convection through far eastern Ohio zones between 22z-04z, which likely will spawn a broken line of convection (30-40% probability for lightning), according to forecasters. Nonetheless, VFR conditions are more likely to be the go-to category for flight plans as the week continues, with occasional showers and morning stratocu that could bring about some MVFR conditions.
