Baltimore residents, brace yourselves for a shift in your weekend plans as the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC has issued an extensive forecast discussion highlighting several potential weather hazards. High pressure currently keeping things stable is set to move offshore, making way for a significant coastal low poised to track northward along the East Coast from this weekend through the early part of next week. The expected result? A medley of rain, gusty winds, and possible coastal flooding.
The forecast begins with today's high pressure centered over southern New England, drifting away and nudging the winds from east to southeast and it's this easterly flow that will be dragging in marine stratocu, leading to increased cloud cover primarily east of the Blue Ridge with a decent temperature gradient anticipated across the region tonight, with warmer conditions near the bay and significantly cooler weather farther west. But attention is fixed on the upcoming coastal low, with the associated hazards listed in the Area Forecast Discussion by National Weather Service including breezy conditions area-wide and winds gusting from 25-35 mph that could escalate up to 40-45 mph along the Western Shore; winds at those speeds often warrant Wind Advisories though it's a tad early for the weather folks to call it.
Starting Saturday, showers are predicted to edge their way toward the I-95 corridor and, by night, turn into a steady rain that'll carry through to Sunday. Expected rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are on the cards for the region east of a line from Hagerstown to Fredericksburg, with the heftiest deluge predicted along the Chesapeake's Western Shore, which could see localized amounts of up to 3 inches. For all you sailing enthusiasts and maritime workers, a Gale Watch is in effect, meaning you'll likely be facing challenging conditions with frequent wind gusts between 35-45 knots, and some might even touch the 50-knot mark most of Sunday.
Furthermore, the low's passage brings a real threat of coastal flooding, as emphasized by the National Weather Service that "additional coastal flooding is likely this weekend as a coastal low develops to our south and moves up the East Coast." While significant flooding is a possibility, forecasters are grappling with the uncertainty of the situation, especially for Sunday into early next week; strong N/NW winds might rapidly turn the tides and prompt blowout conditions, suggesting that Low Water Advisories may be on the horizon, but it's still early days to say for sure.
Baltimore's aviation scene isn't insulated from weather's caprice, with airports likely to face sub-VFR conditions Saturday evening through Sunday night because of the persistent and steady rain, and come Monday, it's plausible these iffy conditions might hang around a bit longer before finally relenting by evening. The metro area's sky watchers and travelers, you've got high pressure to thank for returning VFR conditions and moderating those wild gusts starting Monday evening, followed by a stretch of dry and steadily warmer days through the week. So pierce through the tempestuous blanket overshadowing Baltimore this weekend, and you'll find the reliable Maryland sun waiting to greet us once again.
