Residents and visitors in Honolulu can expect mostly stable weather with light southeast winds in the coming days, according to the National Weather Service. A strong cold front is forecast to arrive mid-next week, bringing heavier precipitation and stronger northerly winds. The front is expected to move back west and north by Thursday, returning conditions to the typical trade winds.
A high-pressure ridge aloft continues to bring stable conditions, with light rainfall mainly in higher terrain. A cold front that was expected to make landfall may stall, but a second front, driven by an upper-atmosphere trough, is likely to reach Kauai by Wednesday. The National Weather Service notes that while model uncertainty remains, the front could also affect Oahu, bringing increased rainfall and a return of northeasterly and easterly trade winds.
Air travelers can expect mostly favorable conditions, with VFR flight prevailing across most areas into the weekend. Light southeast winds will allow daytime sea breezes and cloud formation over interior and leeward regions, with clouds dissipating after sunset as land breezes resume, according to the NWS.
The marine forecast warns of very large northwest swells, producing XL surf along north- and west-facing small island shores from Saturday night through Monday morning. The NWS predicts potential giant surf of 40–50 feet on north-facing shores, likely prompting a High Surf Warning for affected areas.
The NWS reports that despite lower humidity over the weekend, winds will remain too weak to increase wildfire risk. On the Big Island and Maui, temperature inversions between 5,000 and 7,000 feet will limit vertical cloud development and help contain potential fires.
