According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, thunderstorms are forecast for the central Hawaiian Islands, including Maui County and Oahu. The storms developed south of Oahu and are likely to move northward. Kauai has experienced showers associated with a nearby trough, which is expected to persist today and bring additional moisture across the islands through the weekend. Southerly winds are forecast to continue before shifting to trade winds by Monday, which may lead to more showers statewide early next week. More information is available in the NWS forecast update.
The NWS reports that reduced flooding potential has led to the cancellation of the previously issued Flood Watch. Although the threat of heavy rainfall has decreased, rain chances remain, with higher probabilities of precipitation noted for the central islands. The forecast has been updated to align with the National Blend of Models, which combines guidance from multiple models. Forecast confidence regarding thunderstorms near Kauai remains low because of differing model guidance, and thunderstorms are currently included only in today’s forecast for Kauai.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for Kauai due to mountain obscuration from clouds and showers, with similar conditions possible for Oahu and Maui County that could prompt additional AIRMETs, while the Big Island is expected to remain mostly VFR. In marine areas, the trough near Kauai will bring scattered showers to coastal waters, with isolated thunderstorms over western waters and generally gentle to moderate southerly winds east of the trough. The Small Craft Advisory for waters around Kauai and Oahu has been canceled as sea levels have dropped below advisory thresholds.
A moderate north-northwesterly swell that peaked the previous evening has been decreasing, resulting in the lifting of the High Surf Advisory for certain north- and west-facing shores, with smaller surf expected for south-facing shores through the weekend into early next week. Fire weather risks remain low due to ongoing showers and high humidity, and the longer-range forecast indicates minimal fire threat into next week. At this time, the Honolulu Forecast Office has not issued any watches, warnings, or advisories.
