Retail landlords around the country are finally tapping the brakes on rent hikes, with national growth in the first quarter slowing to its weakest year-over-year pace since 2014. Even so, a few hot spots are still turning up the heat, and Orlando is firmly on that list, with select corridors seeing rents continue to ratchet higher.
According to CoStar, national retail asking-rent growth has cooled to its softest reading since 2014. The firm notes that Midwestern markets are among the stronger performers while many Sun Belt darlings have lost some steam. Orlando is a notable outlier in that story, with retail rents in the metro rising roughly 5.1% over the past year.
Orlando still outpacing the national trend
Local data help explain why Orlando keeps outrunning the pack. Cushman & Wakefield's MarketBeat report pegs Orlando's average asking rent at about $31.13 per square foot in the fourth quarter, with roughly 5.3% year-over-year growth. The firm points to grocery-anchored and suburban centers, where vacancy has stayed tight, as key drivers. Strong leasing activity and roughly $1.5 billion in retail transaction volume in 2025 underscore why Orlando landlords have more negotiating leverage than their peers in softer markets.
Why the national pace is cooling
Industry research paints a picture of a retail market drifting back toward something like equilibrium after several years of outsized gains. Developers have kept new supply limited, retailers are expanding more cautiously, and vacancy pressures in weaker formats are starting to cap how far landlords can push rents. CBRE's U.S. outlook notes that availability remains near multi-year lows, but it also warns that rent growth is likely to be modest in 2026 and will diverge sharply by format and location.
Local takeaways for tenants and landlords
For Orlando tenants, the setup is mixed. In the strongest submarkets, landlords are still aiming higher on face rents. At the same time, concessions and tenant-improvement allowances are coming back into play for older product or in spots where demand is less intense. Cushman & Wakefield points out that grocery-anchored centers, neighborhood and strip centers, and high-income suburban corridors are most likely to hold or increase rents, while malls and older power centers are facing more pressure. Investors, for their part, continue to favor stabilized, necessity-anchored centers that offer steady cash flow over flashier but riskier plays.
What to watch next
Looking ahead, consumer spending patterns, interest-rate moves, and the expansion plans of a handful of large national retailers will do a lot to determine whether the national slowdown is a brief breather or the start of a longer cool-down. CBRE and market-level trackers are calling for modest rent increases rather than a collapse, with outperformance concentrated in well-located open-air and grocery-anchored properties. For Orlando, that backdrop suggests mid-single-digit gains could stick around if tourism and household formation stay on a solid footing.
CoStar's national read, combined with local MarketBeat snapshots, adds up to a picture of a healthy but more selective retail market. That context matters for landlords, tenants, and small businesses at the bargaining table this year. We will be watching fresh leasing and transaction data to see whether Orlando keeps bucking the national chill.
