Tampa started Thursday, April 16, 2026, under clear skies and a muggy feel, with temperatures in the mid 60s around 64°F and a light southeast breeze. With strong sunshine on tap, those numbers will climb quickly into the upper 80s this afternoon, especially inland. If you have outdoor plans, expect hot afternoons, keep water handy and take breaks if you are doing anything strenuous.
Afternoon Heat
Highs are forecast near 88°F on Thursday, with Friday through Sunday expected to creep into the low 90s as a broad high pressure ridge hangs over the region. The outlook calls for mostly sunny, rain free days through the weekend, with the next chance for showers arriving Monday as a weak front drifts through. It is the same warm, dry setup highlighted earlier this week in this warm, dry pattern.
Dry Lands And Fire Weather
Forecasters are keeping an eye on moderate to extreme drought conditions across much of west central and southwest Florida, along with critical relative humidity values dropping below 35 percent at times. That combination raises the risk of fire. Light winds should keep the area below Red Flag Warning criteria for now, but officials are urging extra caution with open flames, yard debris burns, and any spark producing work. This outlook is detailed by the National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin.
On The Water
Out on the water, conditions should stay relatively calm through the weekend, with easterly winds generally under 15 knots and a daily afternoon onshore sea breeze that can turn nearshore waters a bit choppy. Early next week, a tightening pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft Advisories starting Monday, so recreational boaters will want to check the latest marine forecast before heading away from the dock. With little rain in the cards, do not expect any quick relief for already low rivers and parched landscaping this week.
