Honolulu is staying mostly clear this afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the low 80s and an overnight low near 72°F on tap. Moderate east-northeast trade winds will keep the breeze steady and help spin up scattered, brief showers through Monday, with the soggiest spots on windward and mauka slopes. Gusts into the mid-20s mph are likely at times, so look for choppy harbor waters and occasionally gusty stretches along coastal roads this weekend.
Afternoon Winds Pick Up
East-northeast trades are expected to hang on through Monday, May 4, with sustained winds around 12–18 mph and gusts up to about 25–26 mph on Saturday, May 2, and Sunday, May 3. Scattered showers carry roughly a 30–40% chance each day. Most locations will see less than a tenth of an inch of new rain, although quick-hitting downpours could leave some brief puddling behind. A small west-northwest swell will gradually ease through the weekend, while a long-period south-southwest pulse builds surf along south-facing shores late in the weekend into Monday, May 4. According to the National Weather Service Honolulu, trade winds should weaken from Tuesday, May 5, through Thursday, May 7, as a weak front passes to the north of the islands, and no watches or warnings are currently in effect.
Plan For Quick Downpours
Those brief showers can drop in fast, cut visibility, and make roads slick, then vanish almost as quickly as they arrived. If you are planning outdoor time, it is smart to keep a tarp, canopy, or quick shelter in the mix and hold off on weather-sensitive activities along windward routes until skies brighten up. Out on the water, boaters should plan for choppy conditions near exposed harbors and reef entrances, secure any loose gear, and check local harbor notices before heading out.
Surf And Marine Outlook
South-facing beaches are in line to see the biggest jump in long-period surf this weekend, while north and west shores stay on the higher side as another northwest swell moves in early next week. The smaller west-northwest energy in the water will ease as the weekend goes on, so surf heights will shift depending on exposure and timing. Swimmers and paddleboarders should keep an eye out for stronger currents and choppy water along exposed stretches of beach.
Earlier Coverage
Our April 27 brief walked through a similar trade-wind setup and the potential for spotty showers, and this update zeroes in on short-term gust timing and surf trends. Read our April 27 wind-watch breakdown for added context.
Bottom Line
Pack a light windbreaker and a small umbrella if you are heading outside this weekend, and build in a little extra time for windward-side commutes. Conditions should back off by midweek as winds slacken. Check for updated forecasts before committing to a beach day or planning time on the pier.
