It is already steamy in Tampa this morning, about 75°F and very muggy, and temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-90s with the heat index near 98°F on Sunday, May 17, 2026. The afternoon looks like the most unstable part of the day, with showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. Sudden downpours could snarl the evening commute, so it is not a bad day to keep a light rain jacket or umbrella close if you have afternoon plans.
Afternoon Storms Likely
According to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay, scattered to numerous storms are expected to bubble up along sea-breeze boundaries this afternoon, with about a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunday, May 17, 2026. Most storms should bring brief heavy rain and gusty winds, and a few could become strong to severe with damaging gusts or small hail. Rainfall totals are still expected to stay on the modest side, roughly a tenth to a quarter of an inch.
Heat, Drought And Where To Find Relief
Forecasters note that today’s spotty showers are unlikely to solve the ongoing drought in parts of the region, so a big cooldown is not in the cards. If you need a break from the heat, the City of Tampa Heat Resilience page lists cooling resources, safety tips and local programs for residents who are especially vulnerable in this kind of weather.
What To Expect On Roads And Water
Fast-developing storms can lead to sudden drops in visibility, brief street flooding on low-lying routes and short bursts of strong wind, so drivers should use extra caution on bridges and during the evening commute. Boaters and beachgoers should keep an eye on rapidly changing conditions, and the National Weather Service Tampa Bay advises monitoring radar and updated forecasts through the evening.
