Florida Employers Eye 10th Straight Workers' Comp Rate Cut, but Roofers Cry Foul

Florida employers could be staring down a 10th consecutive year of falling workers' compensation insurance costs after the state's rating organization recommended slashing average rates by 7.4% starting January 1, 2027. Most Florida businesses are required to carry the coverage, which shields employers from lawsuits by injured workers while guaranteeing those employees medical care and partial wage replacement under a no-fault system.

The recommendation comes from the National Council on Compensation Insurance, or NCCI, the organization licensed by the state to analyze claims data and propose baseline rates each year, according to reporting by Orlando Weekly. NCCI reviewed employer premium and loss data from policy years 2023 and 2024 before filing its recommendation, but the figure is only a proposal. Under Chapter 627 of the Florida Statutes, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation must hold public hearings before Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworsky issues a binding final order, a process detailed in a review of the state's workers' comp rate history.

If approved, the cut would extend a streak that already stretches back nearly a decade. Yaworsky ordered an average 6.9% reduction effective this past January, the ninth straight year of decreases, following an order issued by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation last November.

Why Rates Keep Falling

The proposed reduction is largely driven by a lower frequency of lost-time claims, which occur when employees miss work due to on-the-job injuries, according to Orlando Weekly's report. Employers are required to compensate injured workers for lost wages once an absence exceeds eight days, and the system's overall costs are shaped in part by how often those claims happen in the first place.

NCCI's recommendation also reflects a lower-than-anticipated medical loss ratio trend, which the article attributes to strong wage growth. Nationwide payroll rose 4.8% from 2024 to 2025 while nationwide employment grew 0.5% over the same period, growth largely driven by the healthcare sector. Since employer workers' compensation costs are calculated per $100 of payroll, rising wages expand the overall premium base even as claim frequency drops, according to the same report and separate analysis published on Substack.

National Federation of Independent Business Florida Executive Director Bill Herrle publicly endorsed the proposed cut, arguing small businesses stand to benefit directly since premiums scale with payroll during a stretch of rising wages and tight hiring. Carolyn Johnson, quoted in the original Orlando Weekly report, said workplaces are safe and that safer workplaces are fantastic news for employees and businesses alike.

A Decade of Declines, With One Speed Bump

Compounding nine consecutive annual rate drops, Florida's workers' compensation rates have fallen roughly 54% between 2017 and 2026, dropping the state from the most expensive in the nation to 30th overall, per the Substack analysis. That run began after a 14.5% rate spike in 2017, itself triggered by the Florida Supreme Court's 2016 Castellanos v. Next Door Company ruling, which invalidated statutory caps on claimant attorney fees.

The streak nearly stalled last year. Florida's 2025 rate reduction was limited to just 1.0% after Senate Bill 362 raised maximum physician reimbursement caps from 110% to 175% of Medicare rates, adding an estimated 5.6% to overall system costs, according to the Florida Chamber of Commerce. NCCI's current filing includes minor increases to maximum allowable rates for physicians and other non-hospital providers treating injured workers, though the article notes those increases amount to just 0.06%.

Roofing Contractors Say the Math Doesn't Work for Them

Not everyone in the construction trades is cheering. Representatives from the Florida Roofing and Sheet Metal Contractors Association warned state regulators late last year that continuous rate cuts are driving private insurance carriers out of high-risk job codes like roofing altogether, forcing small contractors into assigned risk pools with minimum premiums as high as $25,000.

The concern points to a wrinkle in how statewide averages translate to individual bills. While NCCI sets baseline loss costs, each employer's actual premium is modified by an Experience Modification Rating, where a 0.85 rating grants a 15% discount and a 1.30 rating imposes a 30% surcharge based on three years of claims history, according to the same rate-history analysis. For high-risk trades where voluntary market capacity has shrunk, a statewide double-digit cut on paper can still mean rising real-world costs.

What the Coverage Actually Pays For

Under Florida Statute § 440.12(2), temporary total disability payments are capped at 100% of the statewide average weekly wage, setting the maximum weekly indemnity benefit for 2026 injuries at $1,358. Employers are also required to provide injured employees with the care needed to return to work.

Not every business is on the hook. Construction companies with four or fewer officers and other businesses with four or fewer employees are exempt from the mandatory coverage requirement, though those claiming an exemption must file for it with the state, per Orlando Weekly's reporting.

Separately, the Florida Department of Financial Services set the 2026 and 2027 Workers' Compensation Administration Trust Fund assessment rate for insurers at 0.90%, while reducing the Special Disability Trust Fund assessment rate from 0.30% in 2026 to 0.25% in 2027, according to the Florida Department of Financial Services. Those assessments fund regulatory administration and second-injury claim liabilities separately from the base rates NCCI proposes.

What Happens Next

The Florida Insurance Commissioner's office typically holds a public meeting on proposed workers' compensation rates before issuing a final order, and no date for that hearing on the 2027 filing has been announced. Whether the final figure lands at 7.4%, is modified, or shifts again depends on that regulatory review process, which has previously trimmed NCCI's proposals in years when medical cost pressures ran higher than expected.

Hoodline has previously reported on the enforcement side of Florida's workers' compensation system, including an Orlando contractor accused of dodging premiums and a Jacksonville contractor facing similar charges. Those cases underscore why the state treats workers' compensation coverage as mandatory rather than optional for most employers, even as the rates themselves continue their downward trend.