A single sentence tucked into the ballot language for Initiative 645 appears to be swaying how Washington voters feel about repealing the state's new 9.9% tax on income over $1 million, according to a fresh survey. The measure, headed to voters statewide on Nov. 3, would undo a tax the Legislature approved in March and Gov. Bob Ferguson signed into law, one that is not scheduled to begin collecting money until 2029.
What the Survey Found
The survey, conducted by DHM Research among 800 Washington residents from Sept. 14 through Sept. 21, found that 57% of respondents who saw the official ballot language, including a fiscal statement about funding impacts, said they would vote to keep the tax, while 35% said they would vote to repeal it and 8% were undecided. Among respondents shown ballot language without that fiscal statement, only 44% favored keeping the tax, 40% supported repeal, and 16% were undecided, according to KATU. That's a 13-point swing in support for keeping the tax depending on whether voters saw the funding language at all.
DHM Research reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full survey, though KATU cited DHM's Kara Krnacik as saying the ballot-language comparison itself produced a difference beyond the survey's margin of error, which KATU reported at 4.9%. Krnacik also said, per KATU, that most residents who wanted to keep the income tax cited protecting education funding as their reason once they'd seen the impact statement. The same divide showed up in respondents' stated reasoning: 44% of those shown the fiscal statement cited protecting school funding as a reason to oppose repeal, compared with just 2% of those who weren't shown it.
The Disputed Ballot Statement
The contested sentence, included in the ballot language by the Washington State Attorney General's Office, states that repeal “would decrease funding for public K-12 education, higher education (including universities and community colleges), and human services (primarily healthcare),” according to the Washington State Standard. Supporters of Initiative 645 pushed back on that framing, arguing per KATU that the statement is misleading because tax collections won't begin until 2029 and that no current school or health care funding would actually be cut by repeal. Andrew Villeneuve countered, according to KATU, that expecting revenue that hasn't yet been collected still means repeal would cost the state money it was otherwise projected to receive.
The fight over that sentence already went to court. The Washington Supreme Court split 4-4 on a challenge to the statement, leaving it in place on the ballot, the Standard reported. DHM Research noted the same outcome in its own summary of the case. The Standard also reported that several other states require similar funding-impact information on their ballots, suggesting Washington's approach isn't unique nationally.
What's at Stake in the State Budget
The tax itself, signed into law in March, applies to individual and household wage income above $1 million a year and is set to take effect Jan. 1, 2028, with payments due the following year, according to OPB. Let's Go Washington qualified Initiative 645 for the November ballot, and a yes vote would repeal the tax entirely, per the same report.
How much money is actually on the line depends on whose projection you trust. The state Department of Revenue's newest analysis predicted the tax would bring in $3.1 billion for the next budget cycle and roughly $8.3 billion over the 2029-31 biennium, OPB reported, while the state's chief economist, Dave Reich, projected larger collections of $3.5 billion and $9.4 billion for those same periods. Both figures are notably higher than Reich's own June forecast, which had assumed $2.7 billion and $6.9 billion, respectively.
Business Concerns and Wider Tax Debate
Beyond the ballot fight, employer sentiment around the tax remains shaky. The Association of Washington Business reported that Washington employers remain pessimistic about the state economy and cite taxes as their top concern, according to The Daily World. Nearly half, 45%, of employers surveyed by the association said they expect the new income tax to affect their businesses, while 22% said they were unsure.
The DHM survey also probed appetite for a broader tax down the road. Forty-one percent of respondents said they'd support a tax on income over $1 million that could later expand to people earning $100,000 or more, while 46% opposed it — though that opposition has eased somewhat, falling from 53% in November 2025 to 46% this September, according to DHM's findings. The campaign backing repeal, Yes on I-645, said in a statement cited by KATU that Washington voters do not support Olympia's income tax once they realize it is coming for them.
Washington isn't alone in weighing high-earner taxes this cycle. In California, voters are considering both a millionaire tax and a billionaire tax, the latter a wealth tax targeting people with at least $1 billion in assets, according to The New York Times. DHM Research cautioned that its Washington survey is a snapshot of current opinion, not a prediction of how the Nov. 3 vote will turn out.
