Houston residents should prepare for a mix of weather conditions over the next several days, with a possibility of severe weather heading into the weekend. The National Weather Service (NWS) has forecasted a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 p.m. today, amidst mostly sunny skies with a high approaching 91 degrees, while tonight, the chance of rainfall and storms drops slightly to 30 percent, primarily after 3 a.m. A calm northeast wind of around 5 mph is expected to shift to the south after midnight, and temperatures will hover near a muggy 77 degrees.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center points to a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, but for Houston, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region due to a seasonally moist atmosphere. There will be a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon, with a forecasted high again near 91 degrees and southeast winds around 5 mph. Rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are expected, but higher amounts are possible during thunderstorms.
According to the forecast, "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%." on Sunday. Moving into early next week, Monday and Tuesday are anticipated to have a 90 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures in the upper 80s.
A radar update from the NWS Houston early this morning indicated a line of showers and storms associated with a frontal boundary moving southward. Residents can expect lightning and heavy rainfall as the system progresses. The Radar Update from 6 AM suggests that the unstable weather is linked to the frontal systems affecting the area and contributes to the fluctuating forecast over the coming days.
Radar Update (July 19, 6 AM):
— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) July 19, 2024
Line of showers and storms associated to a frontal boundary will continue to move southward during the next few hours. Lightning and heavy rainfall can be expected with this activity. #txwx #houwx #glswx #bcswx pic.twitter.com/n6apipJa71
Over the weekend, the NWS Storm Prediction Center indicated that vertical shear, the change in wind speed or direction with height, will remain weak generally, and thunderstorm activity should be largely disorganized. However, "Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday," with parts of central Appalachians and North Carolina possibly seeing enhanced vertical shear that could support stronger storms. While Houston isn't directly in the threat zone for severe weather, conditions may still produce noteworthy storms considering the local forecast.
