Residents in Houston should keep their umbrellas close by as showers and thunderstorms are likely today, particularly before noon, according to the National Weather Service's forecast. With an anticipated high of 87 degrees, and a gentle south breeze blowing at about 5 mph, the chance of precipitation stands at 60%. Rainfall could range between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, though in thunderstorms, that amount could be higher.
Tonight's outlook in Houston shows a reduced chance of rain, only 20 percent before 8 pm, transitioning to partly cloudy skies with a low around 78 degrees. The mild south wind persists, promising a typical warm Southern night. The impending week heralds more sunshine with temperatures soaring near the 93-degree mark by Monday and the potential heat index reaching a sweltering 106, as south winds pick up slightly to 5 to 10 mph.
Meanwhile, the storm prediction center has placed parts of the northern and central Plains, up until the Upper Midwest, under a slight risk for severe weather. According to the Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook, "Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight." Areas like South Dakota and Minnesota can expect widely scattered thunderstorms with potential for hail and severe gusts, particularly in southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity.
Across the central High Plains, the conditions are ripe for isolated strong storms, with western/central Nebraska down to western Kansas — and perhaps northeast Colorado by the surface trough — at a conditional risk for severe weather. Residents in areas such as eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri may see diurnal thunderstorm development this afternoon, fed by a modest low-level jet and warm/moist advection within a moderately unstable environment, bringing with it a threat of strong gusts and hail. Farther west, Wyoming and southern Montana are bracing for high-based convection in anticipation of an advancing shortwave trough out of the Pacific Northwest.
And for those in the Tennessee Valley region, including portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, a more widespread onset of convection is expected this afternoon. This comes as a mid/upper-level trough makes its northeastward push from the Ozarks. While deep-layer shear remains generally modest, the weather phenomenon could trigger a few strong storms with enough power to cause localized tree damage.
