The weather outlook for Baltimore and the surrounding areas today foresees a change, as the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC anticipates a shift from dry weather to increased chances of showers and thunderstorms later this evening and into the overnight. This change comes as a warm frontal boundary lifts from the Ohio River Valley. According to the National Weather Service, the weekend also looks to be peppered with additional precipitation, and the scenario looks similar for the start of next week.
Today's conditions are largely the result of a departing upper trough and the entrance of a weak upper ridge over the area. As the day progresses, probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) are set to slowly increase from west to east, primarily affecting areas west of the Blue Ridge during daylight hours. High temperatures for today are slated to be in the upper 80s—with a few spots along the I-95 corridor potentially hitting near 90 degrees. Overnight, an increase in cloud cover and a southerly low-level jet stream will contribute to milder lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Looking to the weekend, Baltimore finds itself preparing for an interesting set of weather conditions as a cold front nears a stall over the region. The National Weather Service cautions that the pace of the front and the aftermath of Friday's storms will play a crucial role in setting the stage for Saturday's weather events. Despite potential cloud debris lingering into Saturday, the forecast suggests a convective environment with about 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 30-40 knots of shear, which could evolve into a conditional severe situation for the locale.
The situation doesn't change much into Sunday, with the environment becoming even more favorable for severe weather due to the upper trough moving into the Mid-Atlantic, explains the National Weather Service. There's also concern for the potential of flooding, especially considering the recent bouts of rain from Tropical Storm Debby. Given this, areas like Northeast Maryland are under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday, with a Slight risk flagged for the Baltimore metro area on Sunday.
As for aviation and marine concerns, VFR conditions during the day today are predicted, with increasing south winds. Pilots and mariners should be prepared for a possible increase in small craft advisories and special marine warnings over the weekend due to forecasted thunderstorms and gusts.
