Orlando residents can expect to brave another day of sweltering heat, as the persistent summer pattern favors warm and muggy conditions with a chance of afternoon storms. According to a recent Area Forecast Discussion by the National Weather Service Melbourne, FL, a ridge axis across the southern counties near Lake Okeechobee is partly to blame. The forecast notes a scattered chance of afternoon showers and storms around 40 percent "as mesoscale boundaries develop and collisions occur." The NWS warns of storm hazards that include "occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches."
Today's aviation outlook is generally favorable, with "VFR expected thru the day outside of ISOLD-SCT convection," as noted by the National Weather Service. The winds, light and variable at dawn, will pick up slightly, later shifting from "SW/WSW early this morning," and then "back" to ESE/SE in the afternoon due to sea breeze formation. Attention is drawn to brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible with convective activity this afternoon, and possible amendments to timings in TEMPO groups as confidence increases. Although the convection is expected to end through mid-evening, the report suggests that thinning clouds will persist with winds diminishing L/V to calm.
In terms of temperatures, the region will see highs in the low to mid-90s, with peak heat index values hovering dangerously close to Heat Advisory criteria at between 104 and 107 degrees. A slight sigh of relief may come later in the week, as "drier air builds late week, lowering temperatures and storm chances," according to the National Weather Service Melbourne, FL's discussion. An area of surface pressure along the southeast coast is set to bring a frontal boundary that will cool things down a bit, with highs on Thursday anticipated in the low 90s, and some areas in Volusia County possibly experiencing upper 80s.
Marine conditions through Saturday are expected to remain generally favorable with light offshore flows and seas maintaining a gentle 2-3 ft. The coming days will also see the influence of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which according to the NWS is forecast to move northward, well east of Florida. Despite its distance, Ernesto shall make its presence known on land by producing long-period swells from the offshore tropical system are expected to produce rough surf and a High risk of rip currents at area beaches this weekend.
