As Orlando braces for potential tropical trouble, the NWS in Melbourne has flagged a high chance for tropical development over the NW Caribbean. According to the National Weather Service's latest discussion, issued at 5 AM EDT, this system is expected to track north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing with it a suite of unwelcome weather—from heavy rains to tropical storm—force winds—a likelihood that's increasing as the week progresses.
Wednesday through Monday poses the greatest concern, with model guidance consistently forecasting a tropical cyclone taking shape and gaining strength. There is growing confidence in the storm's projected path and intensity as it moves northward, yet, when soaking the already saturated ground, a plume of deep moisture may persist into the weekend, threatening to pour down more heavy rainfall,long after the tropical system departs. The potential for adverse conditions ramps up mid-week, with Tropical Storm Watches already in effect for several counties including Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola.
Boating and marine activity are set to face challenging times, based on predictions by the National Weather Service Melbourne FL. The report indicates "southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25+ kts Wed overnight into Thu with seas building 7-10 ft," suggesting that conditions could potentially warrant Small Craft Advisories or potentially more severe Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Atlantic coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon.
For air travel, VFR conditions are still prevailing, keep E breezes quiet within 5-11 KT through morning and gusting up to 15-20 KT in the Afternoon. Travelers can expect slight chances of showers, mainly reserved for the SUA region, as implied by the 06Z TAFs from the National Weather Service. This temporary calmness in the air belies the tumult that may come as Weather Service warily watches Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine continues its near-inevitable ascent into something fiercer.
