Orlando is gearing up for a stormy week ahead. The National Weather Service Melbourne has highlighted a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean with a high chance for tropical development. This system is expected to strengthen and move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Residents are being warned of the possibility of heavy rain and increasing concerns for the area. According to a forecast discussion released early Monday, while exact impacts to east central Florida are still uncertain, the signs are leaning towards a significant downpour.
Observers and travelers should watch the skies as the weather pattern shifts. Today, forecasts suggest that shower activity is less than a 20% chance, except along the Treasure Coast, where up to 40% coverage is expected, and lightning seems to be off the radar for now. For those planning to fly, expect east winds to pick up, ranging between 8 to 14 knots with gusts potentially hitting 18 knots, though largely, VFR conditions will prevail, briefly dipping to IFR/MVFR within any shower activity, per the latest aviation forecast. The system's potential path could sharply curve northward, with the storm gathering strength midweek.
The NHC has deployed an Air Force recon mission to investigate the disturbance as of 2 pm today. Figures from trusted models such as the GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest an upper ridge over the SW Atlantic with a developing cut-off low that could influence the system's north-to-northeastward journey through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, crossing the NE Gulf coast later in the week. "It is possible NHC may initiate PTC (potential tropical cyclone) advisories later today," states the National Weather Service Melbourne’s advice, stressing the importance of staying current. The NHC is poised to issue further details that could sharpen our understanding of the threat level.
Mariners, in particular, should take heed as conditions out at sea are expected to decline from Wednesday onwards. East flow along the coast will keep up today and slightly increase on Tuesday. Still, southeast winds will steadily pick up speed starting Wednesday, with forecasts predicting 20 knots, intensifying to 25 knots on Thursday. This will coincide with the surf building to worrying heights of 7-9 feet. A "Small Craft Advisory" looks likely to be in place by Wednesday afternoon, with the weather service warning of high coverage of showers and storms later into the week. Even after the tropical cyclone has passed, a plume of deep moisture is expected to hang around, potentially leading to ongoing high rain chances through the weekend, as stated by the marine forecast discussion.
Temperatures, meanwhile, will linger a bit above seasonal norms, hitting the lower 90s in the interior today, with coastal areas seeing the upper 80s or close to 90. A slight uptick is expected tomorrow, particularly in spots like Lake County. Preparation appears to be the order of the day as Florida finds itself in the thick of hurricane season.
