As the year comes to a close, Honolulu residents can expect trade wind weather to persist for most of the week. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Honolulu, moderate to breezy trade winds will bring isolated to scattered showers to windward and mountainous areas, especially during the night and early morning hours. A shift is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, as an influx of moisture from the east is forecast to increase windward showers.
Looking ahead, a similar pattern is expected to unfold, with a plume of eastern moisture forecast to move over Maui County and the Big Island, increasing shower activity as it progresses. "On Tuesday, a plume of moisture will move in from the east, which should give a boost to shower activity over windward and mauka areas," reports the NWS forecast. Later in the week, trade winds are expected to weaken, leading to a slight shift in weather patterns by Friday as winds shift to the southeast with the approach of a front.
The forecasted weather does not suggest a significant fire hazard, as adequate humidity levels and moderate winds are expected to help prevent critical fire conditions. While Honolulu is not under any fire warnings, marine activity is expected to increase, with multiple northwest swells projected to bring surf to the shores. "Surf heights will likely reach advisory levels on Thursday, Friday, and possibly into the weekend along exposed north and west facing shores," the NWS statement confirms.
In addition to the surf swells, volcanic activity on the Big Island is being monitored through thermal imaging. As trade winds are expected to weaken, there may be a slight increase in volcanic haze, or vog, over the weekend. Far removed from serene coastal imagery, "a hot spot over Halemaumau Crater on the Big Island continues to be seen on infrared satellite imagery," according to the NWS forecast.
Travelers flying may experience occasional visibility and ceiling disruptions due to breezy trade winds, particularly over windward areas. The aviation report indicates periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in showers, which could affect flight operations in certain areas. Additionally, mariners are advised that a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening for select areas around Maui County and the Big Island.
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