Honolulu is set to continue its relatively dry and breezy trade wind pattern through Sunday, courtesy of a high pressure ridge steadfastly positioned north of the Hawaiian Islands. The National Weather Service's latest update, however, flags a shift in winds as we head into next week with the anticipation of a cold frontal system approaching from the northwest. According to the National Weather Service advisory, those hoping for a longer stretch of sun might have to wait, with the potential for increased showers around Thursday as the front nudges into the western islands.
While pillow-shaped clouds whisk in on the easterly trades, only sporadic showers are expected in immediate forecasts. However, a short wave trough is looming over the northwest, earmarked to pass over the islands and increase local shower trends through Sunday. "The upper level portion of this subtropical ridge stacks back towards the equator, positioned directly over the Hawaiian Islands," the National Weather Service explains, promising to keep a lid on cloud heights and shower activity for the most part until Wednesday. But this situation is poised to evolve with two weakening cold fronts approaching the islands from the northwest early into next week.
Maritime conditions are also under the influence of the weather patterns, with fresh to strong easterly trade winds forecasted through Sunday. The National Weather Service has extended a Small Craft Advisory over certain Hawaiian waters through the weekend. Gradual relief for mariners arrives later Sunday into Monday as winds ease. Surfers likewise can expect conditions conducive to their pursuits, with a notice of heightened surf along north and west-facing shores through the latter part of next week, driven by a significant fetch developing near the Aleutians.
For airline operations, breezy conditions persist today and into the night, with an AIRMET Tango in effect for expected moderate turbulence both low-level and upper-level. East-facing shores will continue to experience rough surf, gradually decreasing late Sunday into much of next week as trade winds diminish. Despite the prospect of increased showers, critical fire weather conditions are off the table over the next seven days. "Relatively dry conditions will persist statewide through Wednesday," the National Weather Service forecasting, with a slight uptick in moisture possible later in the week as the cold front makes its presence known.
As always, weather is a capricious friend, and with prevailing uncertainties over the exact track and timing of the next front, the National Weather Service advises Hawaiians to "stay tuned." While the surf community might relish the brewing waves, those on land are reminded to be wary of coastal flooding issues, especially during early morning high tides.
