Baltimore residents should brace themselves for a wintry mix and gusty conditions continuing into Thursday. According to its latest Area Forecast Discussion, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts cold temperatures and potentially disruptive snowfall for the region. The service has placed Winter Weather Advisories across western Maryland areas. It warns that upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings could happen if snow accumulations meet certain criteria over the coming 12—to 18-hour period.
The Allegheny Front faces snow showers with snow ratios hitting 20:1 to 25:1, meaning a denser accumulation is possible. Winter Weather Advisories are likely to persist due to increased snowfall rates; high winds continue to be a pressing concern, with gusts potentially reaching up to 50 mph along high terrain areas and lows dipping into the single digits in the mountains, compounding the frigid conditions are winds making wind chills flirt with zero and into the negative teens across elevated areas, leading to the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for the Blue Ridge zones with possible further expansions.
In the short term, as detailed by the NWS, gusty winds might still prevail on Thursday, while high pressure briefly intervenes on Friday, promising a pause in wintry conditions. Still, this respite is short-lived, as the approach of a new low-pressure system late Friday brings the potential for a light snowfall event, particularly in southern regions, where the moisture axis will be most prevalent. However, forecast models disagree with the system's trajectory, impacting local snow totals and associated implications.
The forecast sounds more remarkable ahead of the weekend. High pressure will move swiftly on Sunday to lock in chilly temperatures and dryness. Though highs may hover in the 30s for most and the 20s in the mountains, Sunday night could plunge lows into the teens and 20s. Another low-pressure system will approach Monday into Tuesday, likely to deliver more snow to the Alleghenies, given the frigid teens and 20s forecasted.
For aviators, the NWS anticipates primarily VFR conditions through Thursday outside of the Allegheny Front, with notable northwest wind gusts presenting the main hazard. As temporary high pressure establishes itself by Friday, the aviation forecast remains relatively calm until the potential snow on Friday night into Saturday may pose sub-VFR conditions. Similarly, mariners face a series of Small Craft Advisories due to persistent winds, with Gale Watches also in effect for portions of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River, where gusts may amplify.
The persistent offshore flow is anticipated to cause water levels to drop in Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay. These waters are approaching low water thresholds that mariners need to be cognizant of, especially during low tides, to prevent running aground. However, no Coastal Flooding advisories have been issued at this time.
