Heads up, folks of Hawaii, as the weather forecast brings a mix of calm trades and possible showers to the islands. According to the National Weather Service Honolulu, the breezy trade winds are easing up and transitioning to light and variable conditions, which means local seabreezes during the day and land breezes throughout the night. However, don't get too comfortable as the chance of precipitation is hanging on by a thread. We're looking at a brief period of showers and even a possible isolated thunderstorm come Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a refreshing plunge into cooler weather.
The National Weather Service Honolulu tells us the morning's soundings picked up low inversion heights and precipitable water vapor a bit on the skimpy side, meaning we're keeping it dry and stable around here today. However, a cold front is creeping closer, about 400 miles away from Kauai to be exact, and it's expected to wiggle the pressure around enough to stir up some cloud action and a few isolated showers in the afternoon—thanks to the dry air that's hanging about.
Looking ahead, Wednesday rings in the arrival of this cold front, accompanied by light to moderate showers, and maybe, just maybe, a brief shout of thunder. Post-frontal chill is the name of the game Wednesday night through Friday night, with the thermometer potentially dipping into the 50s in the more secluded spots.
The biggest wild card, the National Weather Service points out, is whether the chilly airmass behind this front will make it as far east as the Big Island. Model consensus is hedging bets it might stall right around there. So Big Islanders, there's still a chance for you to join the cool weather train. By weekend, the dewpoints are doing an about-face back into the 60s as trade winds make a comeback.
The aviation gang can expect the trades to continue their retreat today, paving the way for those seabreezes and land breezes to step in. A few light showers may try to sneak in over windward slopes in the wee hours of the morning, but it looks like mostly clear skies and smooth sailing VFR conditions until 12z Wednesday. Fly with caution, though, as showers trailing the cold front could stir up a mix of visibility and ceiling issues across the western islands by late tonight and into Wednesday morning, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Today, the waters will be calm, but a front is moving through, bringing showers and possibly some thunder. By Wednesday, expect stronger winds, which could lead to a Small Craft Advisory in some areas. A northwest swell is also expected to peak Wednesday night into Thursday, which could cause high surf along north and west-facing beaches, as per the National Weather Service.
For those concerned with dry land matters, critical fire weather isn't in the cards this round. Expected winds won't likely churn up any trouble, and despite a shot of dry air whisking humidity downwards, critical thresholds should remain untouched.
No alarms or surprises here as the National Weather Service seem to be suggesting a relatively tame week, a whisper of showers here, a cool breeze there, but nothing startling on the horizon. Keep an eye out for that small craft advisory if you're looking to take to the seas, and meanwhile, enjoy the gentle ebb and flow of a Hawaiian week, weatherwise.
