As Southern Californians, it's time to prepare for a diverse weather week ahead. According to NWS San Diego, we're stepping into a period of fluctuating conditions, starting with cooler temperatures today west of the mountains and near-normal weather elsewhere. However, Sunday will flip the script, bringing warmer air with highs climbing 4-8 degrees above normal inland.
But just as layers are to be shed, the winds plan to stir things up. According to the weather specialists, a "Weak Santa Ana wind event" is expected to blow through this afternoon subtly and will continue into Monday morning. The inland valleys woke to a cloudy embrace and local wind gusts of 30-40 mph. By Sunday morning, the winds are set to peak, gusting at 30-35 mph below the passes and canyons, sufficient to warm the area significantly.
Looking ahead to the early weekdays, NWS San Diego's Area Forecast Discussion paints a picture of uncertainty about a short-wave trough that could affect the region. The meteorological jargon boils down to this: subtle differences in the weather pattern could seriously switch up wind speeds, moisture, and precipitation potential from Tuesday through Friday.
By Tuesday, the conditions are expected to become more intense. There’s a good chance of moderate, if not locally strong, Santa Ana winds barreling through Tuesday and peaking on Wednesday. Although the winds are set potentially to bring some dryness and warmth, the associated higher humidity could limit fire weather threats. Later in the week, temperatures are predicted "to be below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with the low in our vicinity and cold air advection from the north," guarantees NWS San Diego. A moderate warming trend is expected thereafter, though its extent is yet uncertain.
The aviation and marine sectors can breathe easily as no serious warnings have been issued in those areas. Pilots should be aware of some local low-level wind shear and up/downdrafts this morning, but conditions will improve by this afternoon. Seafarers won't face hazardous conditions through early Tuesday but should monitor forecasts as offshore winds will likely strengthen mid-week.
Fire weather conditions present a complex forecast. While offshore winds are weak and set to last until Monday, peaking on Sunday with relatively low humidity, the true test will come as Santa Ana winds pick up. NWS advises that a "40 to 60 percent chance of moderate Santa Ana winds and a 15 to 25 percent chance of a moderate to strong Santa Ana winds developing Tuesday morning and peaking Wednesday." Thus, regions below the passes, canyons, and adjacent foothills should stay vigilant as fire weather conditions could escalate.
While the weather dance of this week may not demand immediate action, the cautious wisdom would be to remain informed and ready to pivot plans accordingly. NWS San Diego does not call for Skywarn activation. Yet, weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions, a nod to the adage that in Southern California, weather is more a community event than a solitary experience.
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