Baltimore residents should brace themselves for fluctuating weather conditions, as a cold front swept in early this morning, bringing breezy and relatively stable temperatures for the day. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Baltimore MD/Washington DC, the thermometer can hover in the cool mid-upper 40s to low 50s throughout the day. However, forecasters are also keeping a close eye on two looming areas of low pressure, with the first set to affect the area late Wednesday into Thursday and another possibly impacting the region over the weekend.
As for immediate concerns, temps took a nosedive across parts of Maryland, where they managed to "decouple," allowing overnight lows to bottom out in the lower 30s. While daytime heating and the northwesterly wind direction might somewhat negate the colder air, the NWS forecasts dry conditions will continue for most of tonight as high pressure builds to our north. However, the rest of the workweek setup is a bit more complex. By daybreak Thursday, an upper-level disturbance will beeline from the Rockies to the upper Ohio Valley. This disturbance is expected to hit a stubborn pocket of cold air, potentially causing a wintry mix of precipitation across much of the forecast area.
By Wednesday, the region will witness a medley of snow and sleet, with light accumulations possible. Indeed, the National Weather Service stated, "Much of this light and patchy precipitation will start as a mix of snow and sleet on Wednesday, with a quick coating possible where it does precipitate. Come Wednesday night, things could escalate with areas seeing 0.1-0.2 inches of ice formation. Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for the higher terrain, with the Blue Ridge and parts of the Alleghenies potentially clocking in slightly more than a quarter inch of ice by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the weekend, Friday is slated to offer a dry respite, with temperatures spanning the mid-30s to near 60 degrees, depending on your proximity to I-64. But don't get too comfortable because another batch of trouble arrives as the weekend unwinds, with yet another cold air damming scenario in the works. This means a likely scenario featuring an ugly mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow beginning Saturday. According to NWS guidance, "Forecast soundings from different global guidance all support mixed wintry precipitation types given a warm nose somewhere between 900-800 mb."
Tuesday's aviation news shows the region under a VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flag. However, that might change by Wednesday and Thursday morning as wintry precipitation and low ceilings roll in. The maritime sector isn't exempt from chaos, either. Small Craft Advisories are plastered over many areas due to brisk northwesterly gusts following today's frontal passage. By the weekend, as adverse weather descends on Baltimore again, aviators and mariners should be on high alert for potentially hazardous conditions.
On the fire weather front, the cold front's introduction might meet some gusty northwest winds today but without any serious concerns beyond the usual caution. That said, the gusty winds and lower RH need to be monitored, noted the NWS.
