As the City of Baltimore braces for a mix of inclement weather, the latest forecast by the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC reveals an imminent area of low pressure that's expected to shake things up, followed by a fleeting high-pressure stint on Friday before more low-pressure hijinks hit over the weekend, with an eye towards potential early to mid-week coastal disruptions. According to the National Weather Service, Baltimore and its environs are currently sitting in a cold air damming wedge, resulting in a complement of east to southeasterly winds that usually point to a good hold of cold air. Still, today's lower dry air levels seem to have different plans, favoring sub-freezing wet-bulb temps across a good chunk of the area.
This setup has culminated in aircraft soundings at airports in Baltimore and Washington, D.C., charting a slice of air sitting above freezing at the 850-750 mb layer, acting as the stage for a litany of wintry precipitation, including a strong showing by freezing rain, which is forecasted to persist into the early morning before a southerly wind shift introduces warmer temperatures, turning the show to a cold winter rain that's to reign into early afternoon, all while the entire Mid-Atlantic region is bundled up beneath widespread Winter Weather Advisories, along with Ice Storm Warnings in certain western and central Maryland locales, pieces of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains where ice accretion is expected to accumulate to around 0.20 to 0.30 inches – updates on the severity of icing outcomes are pending the break of day.
Looking ahead, Friday's narrative shifts when a cold front barges in, spinning the wind compass northwesterly, sometimes gusting between 20 to 30 mph, and could turn the volume up near advisory levels along the Allegheny Front with gusts clocking up to 45-50 mph, In terms of temperatures, the post-front scenario could paint a wide spectrum from the low/mid 40s in the north to widespread 50s down south, with Saturday ushering in yet another cold front and potentially more freezing rain and sleet to commence the weekend.
The long-term forecast is hanging onto its hat as we steamroll into Sunday with northwesterly flows post-cold front, showcasing highs in the 40s and lower 50s (30s for mountain folks) and gusts packing a punch up to about 25-35 mph, then we dive headfirst into early next week where uncertainty shrouds the smaller scale details though on a bigger scale, we're staring down a pattern replete with upper ridging over the Eastern Pacific/Alaska and deep troughing over central and eastern Canada – convoluted systems that might bring warm advection-driven precipitations, with Monday's snowfall chances looking slim and Tuesday possibly mounting up to a more substantial wintry mix, with the potential for snow and ice more likely in the north and sleet and freezing rain further south, per the National Weather Service's projection.
Aviation-wise, a turbulent cocktail of wintry precipitation types is muddling visibility, leaning heavily toward freezing rain with a forecast of a shift to plain rain early on and improvement by evening. Meanwhile, maritime conditions have dipped below advisory levels, though a southward wind shift could induce brisk 20-knot winds on the lower Chesapeake Bay with the possibility of freezing rain and sleet making another splash come Saturday, according to forecasts.
