Pittsburgh residents can brace themselves for a relatively tranquil weather pattern through Wednesday, with the National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA forecasting dry and seasonably cool conditions, a brief period of light snow in the West Virginia higher terrain excepted. Due to low wind chill values, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 am today for parts of western Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
According to the morning update, despite the increase in afternoon sunshine, the temperatures will continue to lag, not giving way to the chills that have clung to the city's bones. Wind chill values will likely struggle, barely reaching the teens, and an increase in cloudiness overnight is expected to put a ceiling on the spine-chilling descent of the mercury. The National Weather Service advises that the greater uncertainty lies in the extent of morning cloudiness, influenced by the positioning of the upper-level jet; yet, regardless of these variances, temperatures will remain about 20 degrees below the daily average.
The short-term forecast brings low snow chances, with immaterial accumulations expected south of the Mason-Dixon line come Wednesday. Thursday, however, heralds a shift with the advent of an upper trough passage, which could kick off more widespread snow showers and possibly lake-enhanced bands into the evening hours. Yet with hi-res modeling not quite reaching into this future event, the snowfall totals and band locations are still up for review, though current forecasts suggest figures falling shy of advisory criteria, the service's bulletin points to a need for vigilance over the unfolding of these lake-effect patterns.
The long-term outlook steers us toward a potential respite from the frigid air, with the forecast promoting a high probability of moderating temperatures through the weekend, flanked by precipitation chances hinging on the movement of shortwaves within the pervasive northwest flow pattern. The drier weather seems favored to regain its foothold by the time Friday rolls around. However, the region may still see some lingering light lake-enhanced snow showers in the morning, with surface flow potentially ushering in milder air temperatures on Saturday.
For Pittsburgh-area aviation, VFR conditions largely prevailed despite pockets of stratus clouds at 3-4kft. The National Weather Service Pittsburgh stated in its aviation sector forecast that there would be a fine line between VFR and MVFR later in the day. After an early gust, winds are expected to settle by evening, leading to more consistent flying conditions until the next weather system approaches mid-week. This system could bring more widespread restrictions and another snow event, especially to areas south of the Mason-Dixon line.
