According to the National Weather Service, Pittsburgh, PA, residents can expect a streak of dry weather and a gradual temperature rise through Monday. With surface high pressure to the south, the area will continue to experience conditions that prevent precipitation and support warmer weather. However, for those living north of Interstate 70, cloud cover in the afternoon and evening could slightly restrict temperature increases.
Precipitation is not expected to make a comeback until Tuesday, where there's a low probability of light accumulation, particularly in northwestern parts of Pennsylvania; clear night skies are also anticipated, which should foster near normal low temperatures though areas with higher terrain or those that maintain mixing air could see temperatures that don't dip quite as low as expected, this weather pattern includes the assurance of above-average warmth for the early part of the week. As the forecast unfolds, a lobe of shortwave activity moving out of Wisconsin late Monday is predicted to cross the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday. Still, it's only projected to bring light rain to Pennsylvania, as surface and upper-level temperatures should remain above freezing, negating the chances for snow in most regions despite the early timing of the precipitation. By Tuesday night, high pressure is expected to usher in dry conditions again, with temperatures around seasonal norms and the potential for a quicker clearing of west-to-east clouds, allowing for possibly higher temperatures than forecasted.
Toward the latter part of the week, confidence remains high in the forecast that Wednesday will be predominantly dry, with temperatures above seasonal norms. Regions along and south of I-70 have an 80-90% chance of experiencing what could be the warmest temperatures since early February, when one uses 50 degrees as a standard of comparison for warmth. Still, a more unsettled and active weather pattern is anticipated to set in late into the week, leading to increased precipitation chances and a return to below-average temperatures through the weekend. Despite the transient warmth, according to the National Weather Service, an incoming weather system Wednesday night into Thursday is expected to reintroduce rainfall widely across the area, with a near certainty of precipitation totals staying below half an inch.
VFR conditions for aviation will likely prevail through Thursday under the high-pressure influence despite mid- to upper-level clouds moving across the region due to a weak shortwave trough pushing into central West Virginia. Meanwhile, winds should stay mostly tame, originating from the southwest. A succession of shortwaves dropping from the Great Lakes in the coming week is anticipated to bring potential interruptions and chances for precipitation throughout the period.
